Kenya’s equities market exhibited mixed signals in March 2025, reflecting a blend of cautious optimism and global headwinds. The month saw Safaricom Plc leading in turnover with trades worth KES 2.13 billion (USD 16.43 million), followed closely by KCB Group at KES 1.97 billion (USD 15.25 million) and Equity Group Holdings with KES 984.3 million (USD 7.61 million). These three counters continued to dominate trading activity, supported by their strong market positions and investor interest.
Despite their popularity, Safaricom and Equity Group also recorded some of the highest net foreign outflows, with KES 337.8 million and KES 190.6 million, respectively. KCB Group followed with an outflow of KES 270.9 million. These outflows signal increasing apathy among foreign investors, largely driven by rising global tariffs and a more cautious approach to emerging markets amid global economic uncertainties.
Equity turnover for the month declined, posting a month-over-month decrease of 4.9% and a year-over-year drop of 27.7%. This reflects reduced trading activity, as investors held back from selling, choosing instead to monitor the earnings season—especially in the banking and insurance sectors, where results were largely anticipated to be positive. This optimism was a likely factor in the reduced market volatility and cautious positioning.
Foreign investor participation continued its downward trend, with both buying and selling activity slowing significantly compared to last year. The drop is attributed to lingering global economic concerns and the impact of U.S. tariffs and policy shifts, which have heightened risk aversion and limited foreign engagement with the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
On the performance front, Liberty Kenya Holdings emerged as one of the month’s top gainers after reporting impressive fundamentals, including a doubling of its full-year profit to KES 14 million. East African Portland Cement also attracted investor attention due to its appealing price-to-book ratio, which signaled a potential value play. Conversely, Car & General was among the top losers, as investors anticipated weak earnings yet to be released. HF Group also saw its stock dip after posting results that fell below investor expectations.
Looking ahead to April, the outlook for the NSE appears positive, with many expecting the bullish momentum to persist. This optimism is underpinned by anticipated monetary easing from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which may cut interest rates to inject more liquidity into the economy. Such a move would likely enhance the appeal of equities relative to bonds, as lower interest rates typically lead to reduced bond yields and encourage a shift toward stocks in search of higher returns.
In summary, while foreign activity remained subdued and turnover declined in March, the market showed signs of underlying strength, supported by resilient corporate earnings and the prospect of monetary policy support. April may present renewed opportunities for investors as macroeconomic conditions evolve and sentiment improves.
